There is a growing trend in which fantasy football managers are leaning towards a wide-receiver-heavy draft strategy. But nothing turns heads back to the running back position like a shiny, new rookie.
The rise of tandem backfields and hold-outs by Jonathan Taylor and Josh Jacobs have frustrated us to no end, but once you start discussing the possibilities surrounding Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, everyone wants in.
But given their current ADP numbers, you have to decide whether the juice is worth the squeeze.
If you are wondering whether or not you should be drafting Robinson in the first round, the answer is a resounding yes. Not because his ADP dictates it, but because his coach is showing us that we should.
Arthur Smith might only be in his third season as an NFL head coach, but he is a throwback to traditional smash-mouth football, and Robinson is going to see significant volume with Atlanta.
Smith’s offense uses the run to set up the pass, and we expect Robinson to have 300 touches at the minimum.
Last season, the Falcons led the league in rushing attempts while ranking third in total rushing yards. Robinson’s workload is going to be massive in comparison to most players at his position.
Robinson is also going to see plenty of work in the passing game.
The rookie averaged just 32 targets over his last two seasons at Texas, but he averaged 13.5 yards per catch and had six receiving touchdowns.
He is elusive when he gets the ball out in space, and the Falcons are hoping he can add another dimension to their offense coming out of the backfield.
In Detroit, the expectations for Gibbs are incredibly high.
The Lions traded up for him in the first round of the draft, then shipped D’Andre Swift off to Philadelphia shortly thereafter.
Gibbs was a dynamic weapon at Alabama, and the Lions are banking on his versatility and explosiveness to keep defenses on their toes.
The problem for fantasy managers, however, is found in the hype.
Ask any Lions beat writer or fantasy pundit about Gibbs, and they’ll tell you how he’s going to line up primarily in the slot and sometimes on the outside.
He could get mixed into the rushing attack, but everyone believes he will be used more as a receiver.
That, coupled with the signing of former Bears starting running back David Montgomery to a three-year, $18 million deal, screams third-down back at best for Gibbs.
Are you really going to draft a part-timer in the third or fourth round?
As a fantasy manager, it can be very easy to get caught up in the hype, especially with rookies. Your job is to sift through the buildup and focus on the opportunity.
Robinson has it.
Gibbs does too, but to a lesser degree.
If you’re looking to draft a running back in the early rounds, take the sure-thing in Robinson, and let the rest of your league fish for the part-timers.
Howard Bender is the head of content at FantasyAlarm.com. Follow him on Twitter @rotobuzzguy and catch him on the award-winning “Fantasy Alarm Radio Show” on the SiriusXM fantasy sports channel weekdays from 6-8 p.m. Go to Fantasy-Alarm.com for all your fantasy football advice.
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